INFOS ZU THAILAND zusammengestellt vom BOI / Frankfurt
3. Mai 2001

ADRESSEN + LINKS:
AIT Asian Institute of Technology
58 Moo 9, km 42, Pahonyothin Road
Klong Luang, Pathum Thani 12120. PO
Tel.: +662-516-0110; Fax: +662-516-2126

German Thai Chamber of Commerce
699 Silom Road, GPO Box 1728
Bangkok 10330
Tel.: +66-662-236-2396

MOI Ministry of Industry
Rama VI Road, Ratchathewi
Bangkok. 10400
Tel.: +66-662-202-3000

BOI Thailand Board of Investment
Representative Office Frankfurt / Main
Ansprechpartner. Director Mrs. Jutatip Kriengkraisakul
Bethmannstr. 58
D-60311 Frankfurt / Main
Tel.: 069-929-123-0; Fax: +49-69-123-20
Web: www.boi.go.th; EMail: fra@boi.go.th
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TGI Thai-German Institute
> Ihr Partner für High-Tech Training und Consulting in Thailand <
700/1 Moo 1, Bangpakong Industrial Park II, KM. 57
Banga-Trad Road, Tambol Klong Tamru Amphur Muang
Chonburi 2000, Thailand
Tel.: +66 (038) 743-464; Fax: +66 (038) 743-466
EMail: tgi_chonburi@yahoo.com, Web: www.tgi.or.th

3. Mai 2001
Thaksin bestätigt wirtschaftspolitischen Kurs Thailands
Premierminister Thaksin Shinawatra bestätigte, daß der Kurs der Wirtschaftspolitik seiner Regierung unverändert bleibt. Vor den Präsidenten von 25 ausländischen Handelskammern nahm er zu Unklarheiten Stellung, welche in den letzten Wochen zur Verwirrung bei den ausländischen Geschäftsleuten geführt hatten.
“Es wird keine großen Änderungen bei der Investitionsförderungspolitik geben, jedoch wird in der Zukunft stärker auf lokale Ressourcen geachtet werden.”
Bedenken das Auslands kamen in der letzten Woche auf, als Thaksin westliche Entwicklungsmodelle kritisierte und für Thailand größeres Selbstvertrauern forderte.

“Einige Medienvertreter hätten dies mißverstanden. Thailand wolle keine Abkapselung, und seine Anmerkungen hätten nicht mit ausländischen Investoren zu tun.”

Erfolgreiche Delegationsreise thailändischer Automobilzulieferer durch Deutschland
Eine 11-tägige Reise der Vertreter der thailändischen Zulieferindustrie, organisiert durch das BOI, hat auf beiden Seiten ein sehr positives Echo gefunden.

Die Erwartungen der thailändischen Unternehmer wurden bei weitem übertroffen. Hohes Interesse zeigte die BMW AG, welche die thailändische Delegation zu Konsultationen und Besichtigung ihrer Fertigungsstätte in München empfing.

Alain Boyle, BMW-Einkaufsdirektor für die Fertigung in Thailand, steht bereits mit den Zulieferfirmen Aeroflex International (u.a. Stoßstangen, Matten) und Thai C.L. Industry Cable in Verhandlung. Auch Daimler Chrysler will seine Thailand-Beziehungen im Zulieferbereich ausbauen.

Erste Geschäftsabschlüsse verzeichneten einige Delegationsteilnehmer auf der Automobil International Leipzig und auf der Hannover Industriemesse.

Dennoch gibt es Dringlichkeiten der Verbesserung. Der Zuliefersektor hat erkannt, daß er seine Produktstandards verbessern muß, um in Zukunft zu der ‚ersten Reihe’ zu gehören. Nur dadurch kann die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit Thailands auf den Weltmärkten bestehen bleiben.   

Diese Reise ist Teil des VMC-Programms (Vendors meet Customers), mit welcher die BOI-Abteilung BUILD den Kontakt zwischen Herstellern und Zulieferunternehmen fördert.

Schwacher Baht und hohe Benzinpreise treiben den Verbraucherpreis-Index in die Höhe
Eine Schwäche der thailändischen Währung und Benzinpreise auf Rekordniveau ließen den Verbraucherpreis-Index im vergangenen Monat um 2,6 Prozent (gerechnet zum Vorjahr) ansteigen, meldet die Bangkok Post in ihrer Ausgabe vom 3. Mai 2001.

Im März hatte der Anstieg noch 1,4 Prozent betragen. Das Handelsministerium führt

dies auf die starke Verteuerung im Nicht-Lebensmittelbereich zurück, welcher im Vormonat um 3,5 Prozent (März 2001: 2,3%) stieg.

Neben Währung und Ölpreis hat der Anstieg der ‚Excise Tax’ (Tabak, Alkohol) zu der momentanen Situation beigetragen. Der Energiesektor allein betrachtet, verzeichnete zum letzten Vorjahresmonat einen Anstieg um 14,9 Prozent. Der Anstieg im Bereich Lebensmittel fiel mit 1,0 Prozent äußerst moderat aus. Derzeit rechnet das Internal Trade Department mit einer mäßigen Jahresinflationsrate von 2 bis 2,5 Prozent.

Handelsliberalisierung ohne Tabakprodukte
Thailändische Anti-Raucher Kampagnen gehen einen neuen Weg. Für Dr. Prakit Vateesatokit, Vorsitzender der thailändischen ‚Action on Smoking and Health’ ist es keine Frage, bei der Liberalisierung des Welthandels Tabakerzeugnisse auszuschließen. “Freier Handel regt den Tabakverbrauch an und schadet der öffentlichen Gesundheit. Durch Zigaretten werden der Hälfte der Langzeitkonsumenten getötet.” Aus diesem Grunde sei es widersinnig, für diese Güter auch noch die Handelsbarrieren aufzuheben. Die Gesundheit der Volkes müsse über allen wirtschaftlichen Interessen stehen.

Eine Teilschuld sieht er bei der WTO. Diese hätte Thailand 1989 gezwungen, den Zigarettenmarkt für ausländische Waren zu öffnen. Handelsabkommen fördern somit den Absatz statt ihn zu kontrollieren.

Skytrain-Projekt soll an die Börse 
Der Ausbau der Streckenführung verlangt nach neuen Finanzierungsquellen. Derzeit ist der Betreiber, die Bangkok Transit System Corporation (BTSC) in Verhandlungen mit der Regierung um einen Kredit von 30 Milliarden Baht. Desweiteren ist geplant, das Unternehmen im thailändichen SET-Index an der Bangkoker Börse zu listen. Das Unternehmen erhofft sich damit eine größere Liquidität.

Die Fahrgastzahlen steigen um 3 Prozent monatlich. Der Skytrain transportiert täglich 240.000 Passagiere, verglichen mit 150.000 im Vorjahr. Die Zielvorgabe des Betreibers liegt in diesem Jahr bei 250.000 Personen pro Tag, was einem Gesamtgewinn von 2 Milliarden Baht entspricht.

ECONOMY REPORT - THAILAND
 www.apecsec.org.sg/member/memberecreport/thai.html
REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
 After an unprecedented real gross domestic product (GDP) contraction of 10.2
 percent in 1998, the economy began showing positive signs of recovery in the
 beginning of 1999. Real GDP growth in 1999 was 4.2 percent, led by the
 manufacturing sector and increased domestic demand boosted through several
 government stimulus packages. The capacity utilization rate in the
 manufacturing sector increased to 63 percent from slightly more than 50 percent
 in 1998. While this was still below normal levels of 70 to 80 percent,
 manufacturing was nevertheless the engine of economic recovery, with a growth
 rate of around 11.3 percent in 1999.

 Vehicle and transportation equipment production showed the highest rate of
 growth. New vehicle models boosted domestic demand, and exports expanded
 as foreign vehicle producers used Thailand as a production center for regional
 manufacturing. Agriculture showed modest growth of 0.5 percent, with
 increased production of major crops such as rice, rubber, maize, and cassava
 partly offset by a sharp decline in farm prices. Domestic demand, which had
 contracted sharply the previous year, picked up, particularly in the second and
 third quarters of 1999, and rose to 8.5 percent for the year. Private
 consumption grew moderately, resulting in part from rising consumer
 confidence, and modestly expanding farm income. Government stimulus
 measures, which included reducing the value-added tax rate from 10 to 7
 percent and cutting taxes on petroleum products, also helped boost private
 consumption.

 Tourism continued to grow, with the number of tourists reaching 8.5 million in
 1999, a 10.1 percent increase from the previous year. The private/business
 sector investment index declined moderately in 1999, compared with a steep
 decline in 1998.

 INFLATION

 Following a year of relatively high inflation of 8.1 percent in 1998, the price
 level was remarkably stable in 1999. Despite upward pressure from rising oil
 prices in the world market, inflation was contained at 0.3 percent, the lowest
 level recorded since Thailand started compiling the index more than 50 years
 ago. The exchange rate and most commodity prices (aside from oil) remained
 stable, while domestic demand recovery did not generate upward pressure on
 prices.

 EMPLOYMENT

 The economic crisis has resulted in historically high unemployment since
 mid-1997. The unemployment rate before the crisis was around 1.51 percent. By
 1998, this figure had almost tripled to 4.37 percent of the total labor force, and
 underemployment had increased significantly. The situation eased somewhat in
 1999, as the unemployment rate declined slightly to 4.17 percent. Public
 programs boosted temporary employment, and the agriculture sector absorbed a
 significant number of laid-off urban workers who had returned to their
 provinces. Furthermore, both output and employment growth remain below
 pre-crisis growth rates, after falling sharply in 1998.

 TRADE ACCOUNTS

 While trade and current account surpluses fell slightly in 1999, external sector
 performance nevertheless improved significantly as export earnings in dollar
 terms increased by 7.4 percent. Import growth was higher at 17.7 percent,
 resulting in a decline in the trade surplus from 10.8 percent of GDP in 1998 to
 7.4 percent in 1999. The current account surplus fell from 13.3 percent of GDP
 in 1998 to 9.1 percent in 1999. Meanwhile, despite increased inflows of foreign
 direct investments, net capital movements registered a deficit of US$6.1
 billion, reflecting large private capital outflows as commercial banks continued
 to repay their external debts, in particular Bangkok International Banking
 Facility offshore loans. (This organization, established in 1993, allows licensed
 banks to operate offshore, borrow abroad, and lend to domestic borrowers in
 foreign currencies.)

 GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT

 In December 1999, external debt stood at US$95.6 billion, down from US$105.1
 billion at the end of 1998; the share of short-term debt also declined from 27
 percent to 21 percent of total external debt during the same period. However,
 public sector debt as a proportion of total external debt has almost tripled since
 the crisis began in July 1997, and accounted for 38 percent of total debt.
 Official international reserves increased to a comfortable level of US$34.8
 billion (approximately 9 months of import equivalent) in December 1999. This
 was remarkable because international reserves essentially had been depleted by
 December 1997. The high level of reserves prompted the government to
 suspend disbursement of the US$3.5 billion installment due for disbursement
 under the US$17.2 billion International Monetary Fund package of August 1997.
 The exchange rate remained stable at around 37-39 baht per US$ in 1999.

 To sum up, with the exception of private investment and commercial bank
 credits, indications of recovery are growing. Private consumption and
 manufacturing production picked up in particular in the second and third quarter
 of 1999, and the performance of the external sector steadily improved.

 EXCHANGE RATE

 At the onset of the crisis, the Baht depreciated substantially to 53.7 baht per
 US$ in January 1998. With sound stabilization measures including various
 structural reform measures undertaken by the government, the baht has
 become stable and less volatile. The appreciation of the baht was helped by a
 steady gain in international reserves, a decline in short-term foreign debt, as
 well as the stability in the regional currencies markets. By the end of 1999, the
 exchange rate was 37.84 baht per US$, about 49 percent lower than its
 pre-crisis level of 25.34 baht per US$ at the end of 1996.

 FISCAL POLICY

 In 1999, the government maintained the expansionary fiscal stance adopted in
 1998, after the fiscal and monetary targets of the adjustment program of 1997
 and early 1998 plunged the economy into a deep recession. The government
 continued to relax its public sector deficit target. Under the Eighth Letter of
 Intent to the International Monetary Fund in September 1999, the consolidated
 deficit – including the cost of financial restructuring, estimated at 1.7 percent
 of GDP – was projected at 7.2 percent of GDP for 1999, compared with 5.5
 percent the previous year. During 1999, the government launched two economic
 stimulus packages, along with tax and tariff reductions. The March 1999
 package was aimed at stimulating domestic demand, providing liquidity for key
 sectors such as exports and agriculture, and providing a social safety net to
 minimize the impact of the crisis on the poor. The second fiscal package,
 introduced in August 1999, was aimed at stimulating sluggish private
 investment and included tax measures, equity investment measures, measures
 to promote recovery of the real estate sector, and measures to restructure
 financial facilities for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

 MONETARY POLICY

 Despite an easing of monetary policy, the growth rate of money supply
 continued to slow in 1999, in line with the decrease in commercial bank credits
 and deposits. At the end of 1999, the increase in money supply (M2) and M2A
 (including finance and securities companies) was 2.1 percent and 1.3 percent,
 respectively, compared with 9.5 percent and 6.1 percent at the end of the
 previous year. With high liquidity in the money market, interest rates dropped
 to very low levels, with the interbank rate at 1.23 percent, prime rate at 8.25 –
 8.50 percent, and deposit rates at 4.00 – 4.25 percent in December 1999.
 However, the credit crunch continued because of the banks’ concern with
 existing levels of non-performing loans (NPLs), and tightened loan-loss
 provisioning and capital adequacy requirements. Credit extension by commercial
 banks posted negative growth throughout; the total amount of NPLs in this
 financial sector was 2,074 billion baht, or 38.5 percent of total loans
 outstanding in December 1999.

 MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK

 The economy is expected to build on its 1999 performance, growing at a slightly
 higher rate in 2000 and 2001, but not to return to pre-crisis growth levels.
 Capacity utilization in the manufacturing sector should reach normal levels of
 around 70 percent in the first half of 2000, which should be reflected by a return
 to positive private/business sector investment levels.

 While the recovery in 1999 was primarily export-driven with additional support
 from public stimulus measures and tourism, domestic consumption must rise if
 GDP growth is to continue in 2000 – 2001. In the financial sector, the transfer of
 bad bank loans to newly established Asset Management Companies (AMCs) is
 expected to reduce the level of NPLs held by commercial banks by 2001.
 However, if these plans are derailed, banks are unlikely to undertake the
 required volume of new lending to fund a sustained recovery in production and
 economic growth. As demand catches up and capacity utilization rises, inflation
 in 2000 is forecast at about 2.5 to 3 percent.

 Implementation of the August 1999 fiscal package, along with continued
 financial restructuring, will keep the consolidated deficit at 6 to 7 percent of
 GDP in 2000. If the growth rate of trade continues, the trade surplus will
 continue to shrink to about 4 percent of GDP in 2000. This will also translate
 into a decline in the current account surplus to about 5 to 6 percent of GDP.
 Gross official reserves are expected to be maintained at the same level in 1999,
 and external debt and the debt-service ratio are expected to decline further.